Oct. 29, 2004 Can I Text Message my Vote?
Young people don't vote, most young people are tied to cellphones, PDA's and so on. That's the conventional wisdom. There is evidence to back it up from the 2000 election. The polls are showing Bush with an overall lead of 4% and the only hope Kerry has is young mobilized voters coming out in record numbers in swing states. Not so fast.
Don't beleive the polls. There are based on outdated information and statistics. Did you know that the sample of a poll includes only 800-1000 people to represent the 110million people who will vote? Have you been polled? Probably not. Especially if you use a cell phone as your primary phone. This is very important. If you use a cell phone primarily (and I know at least 50 people in my cirlcle who do) or if you are on the do-not-call list (who isn't), or if you are newly registered or have changed registration in the last year, your voice doesn't count. Don't believe the hype. Imagine how many people fall into those categories. CNN has tried to raise this issue (see story).
The number often quoted is 5% of households are Cell only. I do not agree with face to face statistics. That is assuming all of the sample is willing to talk to you and they are not. People who are Cell phone only users fall into the category of people who are very sensitive to their privacy. In the four years since the election there has been an explosion in identity theft, mass marketing and the general stealing and manipulation of private information. As a result, many Americans don't share their opinions for fear of greater identity danger. So, I believe the number is higher than 5%. It all does not take into account multi Cell phone families. Whereas a 'household' may have a landline, that does not account for many factors.
1. Many landline homes are used for internet dial up only or dsl.
2. Many landline homes have multiple people living there who do not use the land phone.
3. Many landline homes are purely for 911 purposes or answer machine households.
If these voters show up on Tuesday, Kerry will win in a landslide and the pundits and pollsters will be out of a job. And they should be. It is ridiculous to try to gauge which voters are more important. That is what polling does. Do you really think that every vote in North Dakota is important this year? No. But it should be. Add to that the fact that we are a media savvy nation. Once we start to see trending on the east coast, many voters just follow suit as the time zones go west. Many people don't think Kerry can win becasue of the elctoral college vote, but that is a different article. We will discuss that when the "popular vote" and the "Electoral Vote" are all tossed out and this election goes to the Supreme courts.
Don't beleive the polls. There are based on outdated information and statistics. Did you know that the sample of a poll includes only 800-1000 people to represent the 110million people who will vote? Have you been polled? Probably not. Especially if you use a cell phone as your primary phone. This is very important. If you use a cell phone primarily (and I know at least 50 people in my cirlcle who do) or if you are on the do-not-call list (who isn't), or if you are newly registered or have changed registration in the last year, your voice doesn't count. Don't believe the hype. Imagine how many people fall into those categories. CNN has tried to raise this issue (see story).
The number often quoted is 5% of households are Cell only. I do not agree with face to face statistics. That is assuming all of the sample is willing to talk to you and they are not. People who are Cell phone only users fall into the category of people who are very sensitive to their privacy. In the four years since the election there has been an explosion in identity theft, mass marketing and the general stealing and manipulation of private information. As a result, many Americans don't share their opinions for fear of greater identity danger. So, I believe the number is higher than 5%. It all does not take into account multi Cell phone families. Whereas a 'household' may have a landline, that does not account for many factors.
1. Many landline homes are used for internet dial up only or dsl.
2. Many landline homes have multiple people living there who do not use the land phone.
3. Many landline homes are purely for 911 purposes or answer machine households.
If these voters show up on Tuesday, Kerry will win in a landslide and the pundits and pollsters will be out of a job. And they should be. It is ridiculous to try to gauge which voters are more important. That is what polling does. Do you really think that every vote in North Dakota is important this year? No. But it should be. Add to that the fact that we are a media savvy nation. Once we start to see trending on the east coast, many voters just follow suit as the time zones go west. Many people don't think Kerry can win becasue of the elctoral college vote, but that is a different article. We will discuss that when the "popular vote" and the "Electoral Vote" are all tossed out and this election goes to the Supreme courts.
posted by Michael St. James at 10:14 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home